We develop simple methods for constructing likelihoods and parameter priors for learning about the parameters and structure of a Bayesian network. In particular, we introduce several assumptions that permit the construction of likelihoods and parameter priors for a large number of Bayesian-network structures from a small set of assessments. The most notable assumption is that of likelihood equivalence, which says that data can not help to discriminate network structures that encode the same assertions of conditional independence. We describe the constructions that follow from these assumptions, and also present a method for directly computing the marginal likelihood of a random sample with no missing observations. Also, we show how these assumptions lead to a general framework for characterizing parameter priors of multivariate distributions.

We present AlphaChute: a state-of-the-art algorithm that achieves superhuman performance in the ancient game of Chutes and Ladders. We prove that our algorithm converges to the Nash equilibrium in constant time, and therefore is -- to the best of our knowledge -- the first such formal solution to this game. Surprisingly, despite all this, our implementation of AlphaChute remains relatively straightforward due to domain-specific adaptations. We provide the source code for AlphaChute here in our Appendix.

Bayes Nets (or Bayesian Networks) give remarkable results in determining the effects of many variables on an outcome. They typically perform strongly even in cases when other methods falter or fail. These networks have had relatively little use with business-related problems, although they have worked successfully for years in fields such as scientific research, public safety, aircraft guidance systems and national defense. Importantly, they often outperform regression, particularly in determining variables' effects. Regression is one of the most august multivariate methods, and among the most studied and applied.

A large body of work exists today in the area of design, including Brown and Chandrasekharan (1989) and Dym and Levitt (1991). Also see the Winter 1990 issue of AI Magazine, which was guest edited by J. S. Gero with Mary Lou Maher. By virtue of the teaching experience that supports this book, however, it is more comprehensive and presents its viewpoint in a systematic, orderly progression. The differences between the approaches by different groups are slight. For example, the propose, critique, and modify approach of Chandrasekaran's group (AI Magazine, Winter 1990) is akin to the prototype creation, refinement, and adaptation idea previously described.

The Fifth International Conference on Genetic Algorithms was held at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign from 17-21 July 1993. Approximately 350 participants attended the multitrack conference, which covered a wide range of topics, including genetic operators, mathematical analysis of genetic algorithms, parallel genetic algorithms, classifier systems, and genetic programming. This article highlights the major themes of the conference by discussing a few papers in detail. The conference was organized by Stephanie Forrest (University of New Mexico, conference cochair and editor of the proceedings), David Goldberg (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, conference cochair and local arrangements chair), and J. David Schaffer (Philips Laboratories, New York, conference cochair). Of the 240 papers submitted to the conference, 82 were accepted for oral presentation, and 37 were accepted for poster presentation.

A Bayesian network is a compact, expressive representation of uncertain relationships among parameters in a domain. In this article, I introduce basic methods for computing with Bayesian networks, starting with the simple idea of summing the probabilities of events of interest. The article introduces major current methods for exact computation, briefly surveys approximation methods, and closes with a brief discussion of open issues. Often, truth is more elusive, and categorical statements can only be made by judgment of the likelihood or other ordinal attribute of competing propositions. Probability theory is the oldest and best-understood theory for representing and reasoning about such situations, but early AI experimental efforts at applying probability theory were disappointing and only confirmed a belief among AI researchers that those who worried about numbers were "missing the point."

This article provides an overview of the field of qualitative decision theory: its motivating tasks and issues, its antecedents, and its prospects. Qualitative decision theory studies qualitative approaches to problems of decision making and their sound and effective reconciliation and integration with quantitative approaches. Although it inherits from a long tradition, the field offers a new focus on a number of important unanswered questions of common concern to AI, economics, law, psychology, and management. As developed by philosophers, economists, and mathematicians over some 300 years, these disciplines have developed many powerful ideas and techniques, which exert major influences over virtually all the biological, cognitive, and social sciences. Their uses range from providing mathematical foundations for microeconomics to daily application in a range of fields of practice, including finance, public policy, medicine, and now even automated device diagnosis.

Bayes Nets (or Bayesian Networks) give remarkable results in determining the effects of many variables on an outcome. They typically perform strongly even in cases when other methods falter or fail. These networks have had relatively little use with business-related problems, although they have worked successfully for years in fields such as scientific research, public safety, aircraft guidance systems and national defense. Importantly, they often outperform regression, particularly in determining variables' effects. Regression is one of the most august multivariate methods, and among the most studied and applied.

As a follow-up to my previous post "Using Machine Learning to predict Customer Behaviour", I wanted to address a similar topic but from an e-commerce perspective. How to you predict the behaviour of your visitors in your online store? Let's look at how Machine Learning can help you address each of the challenges posed by those four branches. In order to keep this post short, I've decided to split it in 4 parts where I'll cover each of the 4 segments. Let's start with product analytics.

We extend the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), an asymptotic approximation for the marginal likelihood, to Bayesian networks with hidden variables. This approximation can be used to select models given large samples of data. The standard BIC as well as our extension punishes the complexity of a model according to the dimension of its parameters. We argue that the dimension of a Bayesian network with hidden variables is the rank of the Jacobian matrix of the transformation between the parameters of the network and the parameters of the observable variables. We compute the dimensions of several networks including the naive Bayes model with a hidden root node.